As the world turns 5.5.22

A gas can is not a fire extinguisher

May 05, 2022

Why the New York Times would publish anonymous statements from intelligence officials that the US is providing targeting information on Russian generals in Ukraine is beyond me. We all know that the US is providing real time signal intelligence to Ukrainian forces. We can all see the AWAC flight paths. We might even surmise that the US has significant command and control of Ukrainian forces. The only reason to publish something like this is for the purposes of escalation. It might be worth pondering why the US is consistently escalating the conflict. If you’re a US citizen it may also be worth pondering the fact that the US is a co-belligerent under any and all definitions of that term. We’re at war with Russia, directly.

Of course, after Pelosi’s visit to Kiev and her talk about “winning” the Ukrainian government started proclaiming that their negotiating terms include the division of Russia after its capitulation. Seems premature talk, but reality has never been a hindrance on the Bankova.

Transnistria was quiet for a few days, but there was an exchange of fire from the Ukrainian side yesterday. Reports from Moldova are that there are a lot of “aid workers” arriving from the US, UK and Canada. Ukrainian officials have been talking openly about invading. So it’s likely that NATO intends to wreck Moldova next.

In Brazil, Lula leads in the polls and dropped some hard statements on the Ukraine conflict. It appears that no matter which way that election goes the US will not find increased support from Brazil.

There’s lots of chatter about new insurgent groups ready to fight the Taliban in Afghanistan. They’re mostly Hazari, which makes ethnic sense, but not all. A former Afghan army general is raising an army too. Combined with the regime change in Pakistan and resumption of drone attacks (Khan wasn’t allowing US drone basing) it’s likely that Afghanistan will be re-destabilized. Also reports that abandoned US weapons have made their way into the Kashmir conflict. An Indian officer was killed through a bullet proof vest by an armor piercing US round.

Russian-Israeli relations appear to be rupturing. It’s a lot deeper than the Lavrov comment that’s being interpreted as anti-Semitism that it likely isn’t. There are plenty of records of Jewish collaboration with the Nazis and ethnic Jews working within the Nazi regime. What’s probably more important is that Hamas leadership visited Moscow this week and several weeks ago Putin summoned the Israeli ambassador to give him a dressing down on Palestinians. Tensions on the temple mount are not lessening. It’s possible to draw the conclusion that Russia has decided to more openly ally with nations and groups hostile to Israel.

Back in Ukraine, Russia is still moving “slowly” but a better term might be methodically. It has recently started attacking specific infrastructure nodes that were left standing. For example, until last week all the rail systems in Ukraine functioned fully. That’s not the case anymore. Russia has started regular missile attacks on the substations that power the electric rail system. Ukraine can still use diesel locomotives, but they’re less common and fuel is becoming very uncommon. All of Ukraine is essentially out of gasoline. Stations that still function are limiting purchases to 20L. Bridges have also been left standing by Russia until recently. Two have now been attacked, the bridge south of Odessa which would allow supply or troop movement from Romania has been destroyed. One major bridge of the Dnieper was attacked yesterday.

Russian losses are unknown, but probably relatively low. Published Ukrainian losses are ridiculous. I’ve seen more dead Ukrainian soldiers than the government admits to and it appears that Ukrainian KIAs are mounting at up to 300/day. Fairly large scale surrenders are more and more common.

Ukraine has no military hope, no matter how “victory” is defined and especially if victory is defined as expelling Russian, DPR and LPR forces. It’s criminal that Ukraine’s western sponsors counsel them to fight on because the only result is a lot more dead Ukrainians. Worse, the longer this conflict continues the more global destabilization we’ll see. It’s already happening. It will likely get a lot worse. Unfortunately, since the early 2000’s the US foreign policy establishment has convinced itself that instability works in the US’s favor so the “arc of instability” is a goal rather than description.

Discussion about this post

Perspectives

Jun 4, 2023

Hello Lex, Just a couple of points:

1. A contract states, we'll supply gas for the Euro, an international currency. But as of now, both the Euro and the Dollar have lost their status of an international currency, because they are not negotiable in all parts of the world. It's clear that the contract goes into renegotiation.

Why Russia delivers gas? The populations are not the enemy, only the NATO structure is. It is the American strategy that crushes the people thinking they will make a rebellion. That is not a world-wide thought process. Russia does not want domination, but to go back to cooperation.

2. Leaders makes certain statements, and then so-called "leaks" bring into question their competence. We're willing to believe that we have the evidence to claim our leaders are stupid, and even the man on the street has more intelligence. I propose this is just an unfounded feel-good sense if superiority for the common bloke that knows he has no power to make any difference in his own life. People with no agency tell jokes about people who do have agency. It is all they have left.

I am not so sure (in general), that it isn't just a giant theater, (or a who-done-it) and we are the gullible audience. On what basis can we assume that we know more than the briefed officials? I take the wait-and-see attitude.

3. Clearly the west instigated a confrontation that they later proved incapable of mastering. There is a certain arrogance in power, and I believe western leaders were so sure that all they needed was an excuse to level the "sanctions from hell", and it would all be over in 2-3 months. Yes, it was surprising to let this genie out of the bottle.

4. It is absolutely clear that the US is a co-belligerent under any and all definitions of that term. We’re directly at war with Russia. This is the perfect indicator of how asleep our population really is. There is no "double espresso shot" that will make any difference to that slumber. We'll just have to watch the stages of escalation, and see at what level a few groggy eyes can open.

5. Western billionaires are very used to setting the laws of the land and packing the courts that apply those laws. They have set it up to facilitate monopolies, which control (at least regional) markets. How else can they garner millions of customers that pay them $ Billions? You can say it is a better product, or more marketing ability, or crushing or absorbing the competition, But all methods are open to the billionaires.

However threats are much more than military. Industrial powers may be overtaking you. Scientific powers may be out researching you. Educational powers may be producing orders of magnitude more qualified people. Commercial powers may be dominating the world. Financial powers may be setting world banking standards. Political powers may be assuming regional leadership. It has never been a level playing field. Our billionaire "means of production" are not used to (nor able to) work in this reality. They are used to a corporate / government partnerships that smooths out all these bumps in the road.

That is the focus on China, and they now turn to the government to smooth out this giant bump.

It doesn't mean that the west will end up on the trash heap. It is just that the private ownership model will have to be rethought.

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